Saturday, May 20, 2017

Forex Trades Week 15-19 May 2017

I completed 7 trades this week. 2 were positive, 3 were negative and 2 were breakeven. Although my hit rate was only 40% I made +2.19R during the week. 1R is about 1% of my account size at the start of the month. I risk less than 1R per trade.
Here were my trades:

EURJPY (-0.04R)

I entered the trade on 11 May the previous week but carried it over to this week. EURJPY was forming a horizontal corrective structure in a bull trend when I entered the long trade at 123.648. My initial SL was at 123.25 and TP at 124.42.
I was ahead by about 20 pips before the end of the previous week and lowered my SL to breakeven going into the weekend. That was a mistake! I was stopped at the open and EURJPY rallied to my TP and beyond but I was already stopped out. I made a small loss of -0.04R.
EURJPY H4 Chart
GBPCHF (-0.96R)

GBPCHF was retracing after breaking out above a swing high. The price action context was bullish. I entered long on 15 May at 1.2875 expecting that the level would hold and the bull trend would continue. It was not to be. I was stopped out at 1.2830 for a -0.96R loss.
GBPCHF H4 Chart
GBPCAD(+3.79R)

GBPCAD was retracing to a support level in a bull trend. I entered the long trade on 16 May at 1.7560 with an initial SL at 1.7520 and TP at 1.7765.
I took partial profit on 17 May at 1.76651 when it was testing the prior swing high. I made a +1.35R gain. My TP was reached on 18 May and my remaining position was closed at 1.77651 for a +2.44R gain. Overall I made +3.79R on this trade.
GBPCAD H4 Chart - Trade #1
GBPCAD H4 Chart - Trade #2
USDJPY (-0.98R)

USDJPY was retracing after an upside breakout above its downtrend line. See daily chart. I entered the trade on 17 May at 112.25 with a SL at 111.85 and TP at 113.45 expecting that the broken downtrend line to hold. It was not to be. I was stopped out within a few hours at 111.85 for a -0.98R loss.

USDJPY Daily Chart
USDJPY H4 Chart
SPX500USD (+0.01R)

This was a silly trade. I entered the trade on 17 May at 2374.8. Fortunately I came back to my sense that I had made an impulse trade. I should have been punished but the market was forgiving that it came back to my entry price to allow me to close the trade at 2374.9 for a breakeven trade at +0.01R.
SPX500USD H4 Chart
AUDUSD(-0.82R)

AUDUSD was retracing to its previous broken support level within a bear trend when I made the trade. I was expecting the level to hold in the classic support become resistance role reversal. I entered short on 15 May at 0.7440 with an initial SL at 0.7470 and TP at 0.7350. It was declining nicely until a better than expected economic news on AUD employment change and  unemployment rate on 18 May caused AUDUSD to rally. I chose to manually close the trade at 0.7462 for a -0.82R loss.

AUDUSD H4 Chart
GBPAUD (+1.19R)

GBPAUD was retracing to a support level within a bull trend. I entered a bit too early at 1.73997. I should have waited for price to enter the support area. My initial SL was placed at 1.7330 and TP at 1.7610. I took partial profit on 18 May at 1.75587 for a 1.18R gain when it was testing its prior swing high. I then moved my SL to breakeven. GBPAUD declined after that and hit my SL at 1.74908 on 19 May for a breakeven trade of +0.01R on the remaining units. Overall I made 1.19R
GBPAUD H4 Chart - Trade #1
GBPAUD H4 Chart - Trade#2

Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

FOREX & CFD Trades Week 8-12 May 2017

I completed 8 trades during the week. Three (3) trades were positive, three (3) negative and two (2) breakeven. I was behind for most of the week, which led me to make two (2) impulsive trades. However, overall the week were more or less breakeven where I made a meagre +0.116R gain.
Here were the trades.

USDJPY (-0.97R)

At the time when I made the trade, daily chart showed that USDJPY was in a MT bear trend with a potential bearish harami candle at the downtrend line.
I was therefore expecting a top reversal on the H4 chart although the ST trend was bullish. I entered short at 112.75 with the stop loss placed at 113.15. The trade did not take long. The downtrend line was broken and I was stopped out at 113.151 for a -0.97R loss.
USDJPY Daily Chart

USDJPY H4 Chart
SPX500USD (+0.016R)

SPX500USD was in a corrective structure within a bull trend. It was correcting after the upside breakout the previous week. I entered long at 2390.7 with an initial SL at 2385 and TP at 2404. I moved the stop to breakeven (BE) after the trade was in profit by the initial risk. It did not continue to move up though but instead moved down to hit my BE SL at 2390.8 for a meagre +0.016R gain.
SPX500USD H4 Chart

EURAUD (+0.25R)

This was a pullback trade. EURAUD was in a bull trend and was correcting to its role reversal level at 1.4716 on the daily chart. I entered long at 1.47294 with an initial SL at 1.4663 and TP at 1.4865. The trade moved up and I moved my stop to BE after it was in profit by the initial risk. Later the trade reversed and formed a bearish engulfing candle. I moved my stop to below the low of the bearish engulfing candle. The trade broke the low of the bearish engulfing candle and I was stopped out at 1.47468 for +0.25R gain.
EURAUD Daily Chart

EURAUD H4 Chart
EURAUD (-1.02R)

This was an impulsive trade. I made this trade after my earlier EURAUD was closed. I had a strong urge to buy EURAUD after being stopped out for a small gain. When EURAUD showed sign of moving up, I bought at 1.47486 and placed my stop at 1.4694 and TP at 1.4885. The entry was sloppy and I was stopped out at 1.46932 for a -1.02R loss.
EURAUD H4 Chart
SPX500USD (0.0R)

SPX500USD was still a corrective structure within a bull trend but its support level was lower. I entered long at 2386.4 as it rebounded off the support level. My initial SL was at 2379.4 and TP at 2401. The trade did move up until it was in profit by the initial risk to allow me to move my stop to BE. However it later reversed and hit my stop at 2386.4 for a BE trade.
This was the 3rd time I had BE trade on SPX500USD.
SPX500USD H4 Chart

USDJPY (-0.57R)

This was an impulsive trade. I was negative for the week at that time. I entered short at 113.642 with an initial SL at 113.89 and TP at 113.1. I closed the trade manually at 113.815 for a -0.57R loss
before my SL.
USDJPY H1 Chart
EURUSD (+2.16R)

EURUSD was in a corrective structure within a bull trend. I entered long at 1.08636 with an initial SL at 1.0835 and TP at 1.0930. I later moved my TP to 1.0990 when I noticed that EURUSD upward move was rather impulsive.
I took partial profit for half my position at 1.09301 for a 1.16R gain. I trailed my stop for the remaining half and it was stopped out at 1.09209 for a 1R gain. Overall I made 2.16R from this trade.
EURUSD H4 Chart

EURUSD H4 Chart

GBPUSD (+0.25R)

GBPUSD was in a corrective structure within a bull trend. I placed a buy limit order at 1.2865 after the support level appeared to be holding. My buy order was filled at 1.28649 with an initial SL at 1.2825 and TP at 1.2955. When the trade showed a potential negative movement, I manually closed the trade at 1.28748 for a 0.25R gain.
GBPUSD H4 Chart
Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Sunday, May 7, 2017

FOREX AND CFD TRADES 1-5 May 2017

I made 7 FOREX and CFD trades last week. 3 made profits, 3 losses and 1 breakeven. Although my hit rate was only 50% but overall I made +2.58R (1R is the amount I risk per trade).
Below are those trades.

AUDJPY (+1.78R):

This was a pullback trade within a bullish trend. I entered long at 83.175 after a bullish rejection candle was formed at the breakout pullback level of the previous swing high at 82.85. I placed my initial stop loss (SL) at 82.67 and take profit (TP) at 84.17. AUDJPY moved up as expected and reached my TP. It was closed at 84.171 for a +1.78R gain.
AUDJPY H4 CHART
NZDUSD (-1.07R):

This was a pullback trade within a bearish trend. I entered short at 0.69151 after a bearish rejection candle at the potential resistance level. My SL was at 0.6945 and TP at 0.6855. I was stopped out at 0.6948 after a better than expected news on the NZD employment change and unemployment rate on 3rd May 2017. It was closed 3 pips higher because of slippage. I lost -1.07R.
NZDUSD H4 CHART
AUDUSD (+1.88R)

AUDUSD was trading in a falling wedge within a volatile bearish trend. I entered short at 0.7530 after a bearish evening star pattern at the wedge upper line. My initial SL was placed at 0.7567 and TP at 0.7455. AUDUSD declined as expected and reached my TP at 0.74549 for a +1.88R gain.
It actually declined further and broke the wedge lower line.
AUDUSD H4 CHART
SOYBNUSD (-1.0R)

SOYBNUSD was trading in a rising wedge within a bearish trend. I entered short at 9.59 after a false break of the wedge upper line. My initial stop was placed at 9.67 and TP at 9.45. The trade did not decline as expected. I was stopped out at 9.67 for a -1.0R loss.
SOYBNUSD H4 CHART
SPX500USD (+0.13R):

SPX500USD was trading in a horizontal corrective structure within a bullish trend. I entered long at 2380.9 near the support level. My initial stop was at 2374 and TP at 2395. I moved my stop to breakeven (BE) +1 after the trade moved up by 1R. The trade then turned down to hit my BE+1 stop at 2381.9 for 0.13R gain.
SPX500USD later moved up and exceeded my TP level but I was already out of the trade.
SPX500USD H4 CHART
WTICOUSD (+1.51R)

WTICOUSD was battered on 5th May 2017(Friday). This was a Head and Shoulder bottom reversal trade. I entered long at 45.199 after a bullish pin bar. My SL was at 44.55 and TP at 46.90. I closed the trade manually at 46.206 for a +1.51R gain since I did not want to be exposed to the weekend risk.
WTICOUSD H1 CHART
USDJPY (-0.65R)

I had expected USDJPY to decline further after breaking below its swing low. I entered short at 112.45 after the bearish rejection candle. My initial SL was at 112.85 and TP at 111.65. The trade did not decline as expected. I manually closed it at 112.717 for a -0.65R loss since I did not want to be exposed to the weekend risk.
USDJPY H1 CHART


Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.






Saturday, April 23, 2016

POS Malaysia Bhd - Trading Idea

POS Malaysia Bhd share has been on a long spell of decline until it formed a potential bottom sometime in mid Mar this year. It then surged higher to take out the late Feb peak at RM2.44 before reaching a new peak at RM3.10 on significantly high volume. It has corrected since but now it seems to be supported at RM2.60. Will this support hold? If it does we could be looking at a retest of the RM3.10 peak. If it fails then the next support is at RM2.44.

Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The Business of Trading - Managing and Controlling Risk

All business involves risk. As for the business of trading, there is no method with 100% certainty that could allow us to buy cheap and sell dear all the time. The way that the financial market work we could not tell for sure whether the market is going to go up, down or sideway. The best we can do is to do our due diligence to study the market fundamental and technical and take a calculated risk when the potential reward is higher than the risk.

We therefore need to manage and control our risk so that we do not put our trading business at undue risk when our analysis turn out to be wrong.

How do we manage and control our trading risk?

The best advice I have read on the subject is the 2% and 6% money management rules given by Dr Alexander Elder in his best-selling book "Come Into My Trading Room".

How would we apply the 2% and 6% money management rules to trading?

Let's look at my EUR/USD long trade on 17 Mar 2011 as an example. See my earlier posting for detail in http://swingtrader188.blogspot.com/2011/03/eurusd-long-trade-17-mar-2011.html

The entry was made at 1.39291 and the initial stop-loss order was placed at 1.38600 giving an initial risk of -69.1 pips. The 2% money management rule means we should not risk losing more than 2% of our trading account size per trade.

Let's say you have a USD10,000 in your account. How many units of EUR/USD should you buy to limit your risk to 2% of your trading account size?
The maximum loss per trade calculation is shown below.
Maximum loss per trade = USD10,000 x 2% = USD200
The pip value of EUR/USD is USD10 per lot (100,000 units) per pip. The risk assumed for this trade is -69.1 pips. The maximum lots allowed = USD200/(69.1 pips x USD10/pip) = 0.28943 lot = 28,943 units.
This means that with your USD10,000 account you should not buy more than 28,943 units for this trade so that you would not lost more than USD200 per trade.

Can you buy 28,943 units? Yes, if you use OANDA FXTrade. Otherwise you have to round it down to 2.8 mini-lot (28,000 units) or 28.9 micro-lot (28,900 units) depending on what is allowed by your brokers.

The 6% money management rule means two things:
1. You should not risk losing more than 6% of your trading account size for all your opened trades.
2. Your maximum allowed loss per month is 6% of your trading account size.

With a USD10,000 account, the maximum allowed risk for all opened trades and the maximum allowed loss per month is USD10,000 x 6% = USD600.

Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

The Business of Trading - Way Forward

The business of trading is simple but many lose money trading the markets.
The reasons why traders lost are because of their inability to control their emotions and the way the markets work. What can we do to deal with these issues?
1. Have a plan and system to structure how we would conduct our trading business. As with any good business, we need to work to a system to organise our decision making process. Having a system in place will help to guide us to think through what we want to do and why so that we would be rational instead of emotional.
2. Manage and control our risk. All business involves risk. With trading we know that we cannot assess the market with certainty even when we are rational. We therefore need to have risk controls in place and apply the control so that we do not put our business at undue risk when we are wrong.
3. Have a trading record keeping system in place. To improve we need to record our trading action and measure our results so that we can assess our trading performance.
4. Have a regular routine to monitor and review our trading performance so that we can subject us to the continuous improvement process.



Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Monday, February 14, 2011

The Business of Trading - The Challenges

Trading the financial markets is a business. The business goal is to make money and the return is potentially lucrative. The business is simple. We buy and sell financial instruments. We make money when we buy lower than we sell and when we sell higher than we buy. It is simple to make money from trading but many do the opposite and lose money.

Why is that? I think 3 of the reasons are emotional:
1. Our emotion of fear and greed. We are afraid to buy when what we trade is offered at a discount and we are too greedy to sell when what we trade is bid at a premium.
2. Our herd mentality. We tend to follow the crowd, fear missing out and chase price.
3. Our strong urge to trade even there is no good reason to do so. We sometimes forget that the reason why we trade, which is to make money.
I have been guilty too and occasionally still succumb to make the same emotional mistakes.

Besides that it is the way the markets work. Even when we are rational, it is not possible to assess the market with certainty so that we know when it is cheap to buy and when it is dear to sell. We cannot tell for sure whether it is going to move up, down or sideway. The best we can do is to do the due diligence and take a calculated risk when the expected reward is higher than the risk.



Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

Forex Trades Week 15-19 May 2017

I completed 7 trades this week. 2 were positive, 3 were negative and 2 were breakeven. Although my hit rate was only 40% I made +2.19R ...