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FCPO 3rd Month Contract - End of Downtrend?

FCPO 3rd month contract has been in a downtrend since early Feb 2017 making lower highs and lower lows and containing its price action below its 20-day sma until May 2017 when it started to go above its 20-day sma. It stayed above its 20-day sma until the last week of May 2017 where it traded below its 20-day sma line again.
Recent price action showed FCPO briefly broke below its Apr 2017 low but quickly closed above it the next day followed by a long bullish candle to create a false break. At the same time price formed a bullish divergence against MACD where price made a lower low but MACD traced a higher low. This is a technical clue that FCPO downtrend could be ending and its price could be heading higher.

Disclaimer:
Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.
Recent posts

FOREX and CFD Trades 12-16 Jun 2017

I had a good week this week. I completed 4 trades and out of these I made 3 winning trades and 1 breakeven trade. There was no losing trade.
I continue to keep my risk 0.5% or less of my account size per trade. Overall I made +3.20%of my account size for the week.
Here were my trades.

GBPJPY (+1.42%)

Setup: Pullback trade to role reversal S/R level in a bear trend on H4 chart
Entry: Sell 140.849 SL 141.20 TP 139.10
Exit:   139.472 and 139.451

GBPJPY was in a bear trend on its H4 chart when I made this trade. I entered short on 9 Jun 2017 at 140.849  after a pullback rally to a role reversal S/R level.  I placed my SL at 141.20 and TP 139.10 risking -35.1 pips with a potential +174.9 pips reward for a 1:5 risk/reward ratio. I could have achieved the full reward had I not micro managed it.
After a down move that just missed my TP target, I exited manually on 12 Jun 2017 at 139.472. The subsequent candle did reach my TP target but I had lowered both my SL and TP such that my remaining un…

Forex and CFD Trades 5-9 Jun 2017

I completed 8 trades this week with 2 winning trades, 1 breakeven and 5 losing trades. This week I had decided to reduce my risk to 0.5% of my account balance after last week losing week. It was the correct decision to made. Although my hit rate was only 25% but because my losers were small, I still ended up with a gain of +1.26% of my account size for the week.

GBPUSD (+2.127%)

GBPUSD was in a bear trend on the H4 chart until it formed a potential triple bottom reversal pattern. It broke above the neckline of the bottom reversal pattern and I entered the trade long on pullback at 1.2845 on 01 Jun 2017. I placed my SL at 1.2805 and TP at 1.2930. The trade moved up to my TP target and was closed at 1.29301 on 05 Jun 2017 to net me a +2.127%gain.

EURCAD (-0.467%)

EURCAD was in an uptrend on the H4 chart when I made the trade. It formed a bullish hammer candle at the 20 bar MA line and I entered long on 05 Jun 2017 at 1.51802 with my SL at 1.5130 and TP at 1.5240. I was expecting the uptr…

Forex and CFD Trades 29 May to 2 Jun 2017

I completed 8 trades this week. 2 were winning trades and 6 were losing trades. Overall I lost -1.848% of my account size for the week.

There were a few lessons for me from this week trading:

1. I made two sloppy trades. One on GBPCHF and one on GBPCAD. I was too eager on these two trades that I did not follow my rules on entering at support/resistance area. I entered too early and forced me to place my stop loss at inappropriate location in order to make the trade had an acceptable reward/risk ratio. In short I was forcing the trades. I would have avoided -0.988R loss and possibly made money.  I need to work on my self-discipline in order to avoid making the same mistakes.
2. I believe I would do better to concentrate only on trend continuation pullback trades since most of the reversal and breakout trades I made either did not work out or resulted only in modest gain.
3. There is opportunity to improve my trade setup reward/risk ratio by tweaking my entry, which I will need to weig…

Forex Trades Week 22-26 May 2017

It was a very emotionally challenging week. I had 4 consecutive losing trades before making a winning trade. That was my only winning trade for the week. It was almost enough to cover for my 4 losing trades. Overall I had a -0.034% week

Below were my trades.

NZDUSD (-0.955%)

NZDUSD was in trading range within a bear trend on the daily chart when I made the trade. I entered short at 0.6942 on 18 May 2017 the previous week expecting the top of the trading range to hold and the bear trend to continue. The top of the trading range did not hold but was instead broken and I was stopped out at 0.69802 on 22 May 2017. I lost -0.955%.

USDCAD (-0.97%)

USDCAD was pulling back to its previous broken swing high at 1.3530, which I had expected to become support,  when I made this trade. I placed two separate buy orders at 1.35298 on 19 May 2017 with SL at 1.3480 and different TP at 1.3630 and 1.3745. The trade did not work out as I expected and I was stopped out on both orders at 1.3480 on 23 May 20…

Forex Trades Week 15-19 May 2017

I completed 7 trades this week. 2 were positive, 3 were negative and 2 were breakeven. Although my hit rate was only 40%, I made +2.19% of my account size during the week. I risk 1% or less of my account size at the start of the month.
Here were my trades:

EURJPY (-0.04%)

I entered the trade on 11 May the previous week but carried it over to this week. EURJPY was forming a horizontal corrective structure in a bull trend when I entered the long trade at 123.648. My initial SL was at 123.25 and TP at 124.42.
I was ahead by about 20 pips before the end of the previous week and lowered my SL to breakeven going into the weekend. That was a mistake! I was stopped at the open and EURJPY rallied to my TP and beyond but I was already stopped out. I made a small loss of -0.04%.
GBPCHF (-0.96%)

GBPCHF was retracing after breaking out above a swing high. The price action context was bullish. I entered long on 15 May at 1.2875 expecting that the level would hold and the bull trend would continue. I…

FOREX & CFD Trades Week 8-12 May 2017

I completed 8 trades during the week. Three (3) trades were positive, three (3) negative and two (2) breakeven. I was behind for most of the week, which led me to make two (2) impulsive trades. However, overall the week were more or less breakeven where I made a meagre +0.116% gain.
Here were the trades.

USDJPY (-0.97%)

At the time when I made the trade, daily chart showed that USDJPY was in a MT bear trend with a potential bearish harami candle at the downtrend line.
I was therefore expecting a top reversal on the H4 chart although the ST trend was bullish. I entered short at 112.75 with the stop loss placed at 113.15. The trade did not take long. The downtrend line was broken and I was stopped out at 113.151 for a -0.97% loss.

SPX500USD (+0.016%)

SPX500USD was in a corrective structure within a bull trend. It was correcting after the upside breakout the previous week. I entered long at 2390.7 with an initial SL at 2385 and TP at 2404. I moved the stop to breakeven (BE) after the trad…