EUR/USD Trade 22 Oct 10

This EUR/USD short trade was intended as a swing trade lasting at least a day. Daily chart was the higher time frame chart to determine the trend direction, and, 3-hourly, 30-min and 5-min the lower time frame charts to execute the trade. The clock is indicated in Malaysian time.

As per 20 Oct completed daily bar, the position of the slow stochastic(13/3) suggested that the daily momentum was bearish. EUR/USD trend was expected to be bearish.
3-hour chart showed EUR/USD was making an ABC correction, which tested the 76.4% decline from 15 Oct 18.00hr 3-hour bar high to 20 Oct 06.00hr 3-hour bar low. With the stochastic overbought, EUR/USD was in a position to complete the ABC correction.
On 30-min chart showed EUR/USD stochastic has been bearish since the 21 Oct 16.30hr 30-min bar. I decided to execute my entry on the 5-min chart to reduce my capital exposure.
EUR/USD made a momentum bearish reversal at the 21 Oct 17.50hr 5-min bar after making an ABC correction, which tested the 50-61.8% retracement of the decline from 21 Oct 16.25hr 5-min bar high to the 21 Oct 17.05hr 5-min bar low. I decided to place a sell order 1 pip + spreads below the 21 Oct 17.05hr 5-min bar swing low.

My sell order was executed at 1.40140 at 21 Oct 17.55hr after the 21 Oct 17.05hr 5-min bar swing low was taken out. I placed my stop order at 1.40523 just above the 21 Oct 16.25hr 5-min bar swing high risking -38.3 pips.

The minimum profit target for my short term (ST) unit was at 1.39610, which was the 50% retracement of the advance from 21 Oct 09.30hr 30-min bar low to 21 Oct 16.00hr 30-min bar high.
I placed a trailing 1 bar high buy stop order on the 5-min chart for my ST units after the 50% minimum target was hit. The 21 Oct 23.40hr 5-min bar closed below the 50% minimum target. The last buy stop order adjustment was made at 1.39712 at 21 Oct 23.55hr.
The buy stop order for my ST unit was executed at 1.39713 at 21 Oct 23.56hr for a +42.7 pips gain.
The minimum target for my long term (LT) unit was the 50% retracement of the rally from 20 Oct 06.00hr 3-hour bar low to 21 Oct 15.00hr 3-hour bar high.
I reduced my stop-loss for the LT unit to 1.40400 just above the 21 Oct 22.00hr 30-min swing high at 22 Oct 01.00hr after the 21 Oct 21.00hr 30-min swing low was taken out.
EUR/USD declined as expected. I reduced further my stop order for my LT unit to 1.39422 (above 22 Oct 02.30hr 30-min bar swing high) at 22 Oct 08.25hr.
My stop order for my LT unit was executed at 1.39422 at 22 Oct 12.52hr for a +71.8 pips gain.

Summary of trade:

Entry: Sell short at 1.4014 at 21 Oct 17.55hr

Exit: Closed ST unit at 1.39713 at 21 Oct 23.56hr for a +42.7 pips gain

Closed LT unit at 1.39422 at 22 Oct 12.52hr for a +71.8 pips gain

Disclaimer:

Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

XAU/USD Trade 20 Oct 10

This was planned as a short-term day trade. I used 3-hourly chart as my higher time frame chart to determine the trend direction, and, 30-min and 5-min chart as my lower time frame charts to execute my trade. Times are indicated in Malaysian time.

As per completed 20 Oct 03.00 hr 3-Hourly bar, slow stochastic (13/3) suggested that XAU/USD momentum was oversold. I expected XAU/USD trend to be sideways to bullish over the next few hours. I waited for XAU/USD to make a correction and a momentum bullish reversal in the 30-min chart to have a buy set-up in place.
XAU/USD made a momentum bullish reversal at 07.30hr 30-min bar after retracing 61.8% of its rally from 02.00hr 30-min bar low to 05.30hr 30-min bar high. I decided to execute my entry on the 5-min chart in order to reduce my capital exposure.
After XAU/USD made an ABC correction to the 76.4% support zone and made a momentum bullish reversal on the 5-min chart, I decided to place a buy stop order 1 pip + spreads above the 06.45hr 5-min bar high(Wave B high) . My order was filled at 1334.86 at 08.06hr after the 06.45hr 5-min bar high (Wave B high) was taken out. Stop-loss was placed at 1330.34 just below the 07.20hr 5-min bar low.
The minimum target for the short term unit is the 50-61.8% retracement zone of the price decline from the 00.00hr 30-min bar high to the 2.00hr 30-min bar low.
A trailing 1-bar low sell order for my short-term unit was placed 1 pip + spreads below the low of the most recently completed 5-min bar after the 50-61.8% target was reached. The last adjustment for the trailing 1-bar low sell order was made below the 09.05hr 5-min bar low.
The sell order for my short-term unit was executed at 1336.53 for a 167 pips gain at 09.12hr after the 09.05hr 5-min bar low was taken out.
I decided to use a trailing 2-bar low stop order on the 3-hourly chart for my long term unit. The last adjustment for the trailing 2-bar low stop order was made at 1337.75 just below the 12.00hr 3-hourly bar low at 18.07hr.

My stop order was executed at 1337.57 for a +271 pips gain at 20.53hr.

Overall, it was reasonable trade for short term hold. I entered at 1334.86 at 08.06hr, exit my short term unit at 1336.53 for a 167 pips gain at 09.12hr and exit my long term unit at 1337.57 for a +271 pips gain at 20.53hr. Remember that the value of 10 pips for XAU/USD is equal to 1 pip for EUR/USD.

Disclaimer:

Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

MTDACPI Trade 06 Oct 10

MTDACPI Weekly Chart 06 Oct 10

Stochastic oscillator (13, 3) showed MTDACPI weekly momentum was bullish from w/e 24 Sep 10. MTDACPI has corrected 78.6% of its price advance from the weekly low of w/e 27 May 10 to the weekly high of w/e 23 Jul 10 r. MTDACPI trend was expected to be bullish.

MTDACPI Daily Chart 06 Oct 10

MTDACPI made a daily momentum bullish reversal on 01 Oct 10 after correcting 61.8% of its advance from the daily low of 8 Sep 10 to the daily high of 22 Sep 10. The high of the 01 Oct 10 daily candle was taken out on 04 Oct 10 giving a buy signal but I only entered on 06 Oct 10 at 50 sen.

The good thing about Bursa Malaysia stock is that it is not too volatile like FOREX. We can afford to wait for a day or two after the buy signal was made.

Learning from Robert Miner’s book High Probability Trading Strategies, I bought enough MTDACPI shares to allow me to exit my position in stages. The first unit is called the short term unit. It is usually exited fairly quickly for a relatively small profit once the minimum target is reached. The second unit is called the long term unit. The long term term unit is intended to capture the longer term trend.

MTDACPI Daily Chart 15 Oct 10

I sold my short term unit on 15 Oct 10 at 58.5 sen for about 16% gain following a bearish engulfing reversal candle on 14 Oct 10 and after the minimum target 50-61.8% retracement of the decline from the daily high of 23 Jul 10 to the low of 8 Sep 10 was reached.

MTDACPI weekly chart 19 Oct 10

The long term target based on weekly chart is 73-75 sen. The long term target is based on:

1. 78.6% correction from the weekly high of w/e 14 Aug 09 to the weekly low of w/e 27 May 10 .

2. 100% Fibonacci projection of the advance from the weekly low of w/e 27 May 10 to the weekly high of w/e 23 Jul 10 projected from the weekly low of w/e 9 Sep 10.

3. 127% external retracement of the decline from the weekly high of w/e 23 Jul 10 to the weekly low of w/e 09 Sep 10.

Will MTDACPI advance to this long term target? I do not know but I still have my long term unit just in case.

Disclaimer:

Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.

MUHIBAH Trade on 17 Jun 10 - Update No. 1

I posted this trade on 27 Jun 10.

http://swingtrader188.blogspot.com/2010/06/muhibbah-trade-on-17-jun-10.html

It has been a long wait. MUHIBAH finally attracted lots of trading interest. Volume was well above normal last week.

In my original post I mentioned RM1.14 (8 Apr 10 high) as my initial target. This remains a valid target but I have now projected target zones based on the technique I learned from Robert Miner's book High Probability Trading Strategies.

These are shown in the weekly chart below.

MUHIBAH Weekly Chart 20 Oct 10

The initial target zone is rm1.09-1.15. The target range correspond to:

1. 38.2% retracement of the decline from w/e 12 Jun 09 to w/e 27 May 10.

2. 161.8% projection of the advance from w/e 27 May 10 to w/e 06 Aug 10 projected from the low of w/e 03 Sep 10 weekly bar.

3. 161.8% external retracement of the decline from w/e 06 Aug 10 to 27 May 10.

Next target zone is rm1.23-1.28. The target range correspond to:

1. 50.0% retracement of the decline from w/e 12 Jun 09 to w/e 27 May 10.

2. 261.8% projection of the advance from w/e 27 May 10 to w/e 06 Aug 10 projected from the low of w/e 03 Sep 10 weekly bar.

3. 261.8% external retracement of the decline from w/e 06 Aug 10 to 27 May 10.

Will MUHIBAH reach these target? Let's see.

Disclaimer:

Trading and investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses. I shall not be responsible for any losses or loss profit resulting from trading or investment decision based on my posting and any information presented in this blog.